Okay, I’ll strike a bargain with you there’s some good news and bad news for the future skills needed in 2030.
First bad news, research from academics working with Microsoft has been published and it doesn’t look pretty for public relations. Its 24th on the list of 200,000 jobs most exposed to being replaced by AI.
Here’s the list of top 40:
So, what’s in the bottom 40 which are predicted to be the least likely to be replaced by AI?
The answer to that is dredge operators, bridge and lock tenders, water treatment plant system operators, motor boat operators and foundry coremakers. In short, they are practical jobs that are not part of the knowledge economy.
Optimism
So, what optimism can be found from this?
In the cycle of shock, denial, bargaining and acceptance here’s denial.
Public relations is 24th on the chart. Queen’s ‘Don’t Stop Me Now’ only reached 24 when it was first released and that still has value.
The good news is that every study and forecast doesn’t appear bleak for communications people. The World Economic Forum’s forecasts for the labour market in 2025 not only doesn’t see decline it also sees some growth in the number of people employed.
Social media strategists are towards the top of this image with media and communications also growth. That’s shown by the blue column.
Communications doesn’t show as much growth as AI specialists but it’s heartening to see a more positive image here. Before you ask, jobs at the bottom are bank tellers and postal workers. You can see the full World Economic Forum Fuure of Jobs 2025 report is here.
The report shows a third of UK’s core skills will change by 2030. Compared to other countries, that’s quite tame. That figure is almost at the bottom of the league table for the amount of change expected.
Now for bargaining and acceptance
On the Microsoft chart, as an English & History graduate I don’t see how historians are second. This is a job of interrogating files, papers, documents, interviewing and evaluating.
So, could the research be wrong?
As with any forecasting there are elements of prediction and guesswork. It may come to pass and it may not. This is also research that Microsoft have a big hand in.
It’s also important to remember we are on a hype cycle with AI. Tech company Gartner came up with this way of looking at technology that sees new ideas followed by a peak of inflated expectations and then the fall into the trough of disillusionment. From that we can recover to the slope of enlightenment where we start to work out what’s usable and what’s not. After this, if we are lucky we can have the plateau of productivity.
Here it is visually:
This approach maps the dot.com bubble. At first, every start-up was going to change the world and then we realised it wouldn’t. Then we realised that Google and Amazon were really quite good. Then we hit the plateau of productivity.
UK Government talks of a £45 billion saving through AI trimming back six per cent of Government spending by harnessing AI. I’m not yet convinced by this. They are putting a lot of faith into hyped technology. Who knows if they are backing a winner or just boo,com.
Yet, this also leads into a third truth. With technology we often over-estimate what the short term will look like and then under-estimate the impact long term. This is known as Amara’s Law.
So, what does the future look like?
To be optimistic, one thing that AI doesn’t have is lived experience, common sense and political nouse that public relations, particularly in the public sector, need to have. Many of the starter positions have long gone from comms teams. When I started, there was an employee working two and a half days a week scanning newspaper cuttings before circulating them to senior people. That went in the first wave of cuts following the Banking Crisis.
Yet, the public sector will only go as fast with AI as the public will let it. When I talk to police communicators, trust is the number one issue. Blow trust with a community and the police are in real trouble. At various points in history, when that goes a breakdown in law and order can take place. Think Toxteth, 1981 for example.
In short, the predicted pace of change does not factor in these very human variants.
The reality is that the world is changing rapidly and standing still isn’t going to work for many people. As communicators, we absolutely have to be prepared for it.
Is the public sector ready for it? If I’m honest. I think many comms people would like it to go away.
When I post AI content, it performs as third as well as that on more conventional comms. If you’ve read down to here, thank you. You could well be the people that find a future with AI. There are those who don’t still up that simply won’t.
I deliver training to help you make sense of the changing landscape ESSENTIAL AI FOR PUBLIC SECTOR COMMS, ESSENTIAL COMMS SKILLS BOOSTER, ESSENTIAL MEDIA RELATIONS and ESSENTIAL VIDEO SKILLS REBOOTED.